I am often astouned by the pace of scientific and technological progress in our era. Dr. Michio Kaku writes in Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century (one of my favorite books), that more scientific knowledge was generated
from 1987 to 1997 than in all of human history which proceeded it. It is astounding
to realize that human knowledge is doubling every ten years. Thus, we have learned
more in the last ten years, from 1997 to 2007, than we did in the entire history of
humanity up to 1997.
Computer scientist Ray Kurzweil points out that in addition to learning more about
the world than we ever have before, the very pace of the this learning is increasing.
He asserts that we are doubling the rate of progress every decade. Thus, in the future
we will learn more and more about the world in a shorter and shorter timespan than we
ever had in the entire history of humanity.
The number of DNA sequences that can sequence is doubling roughly every year. Computing power is doubling every year. The size of the internet is doubling every year. This extraordinary growth will transform the world beyond imagination. Perhaps the most extraordinary prospect is that of creating computers which can exceed the power of the human brain. According to the calculations of the computer scientist, Ray Kurzweil, we can create computers equal to the
capacity of one human brain for a $1,000 in the year 2023. We can create the same computer
for one penny around the year 2037.
A more interesting concept is that we could create computers which would be equal to the total human race for a $1,000 around 2049. We could create computers which would be equal to the
entire human race for 1 cent around the year 2059.
Indeed, what an amazing future to ponder. The most important challange in this future is to ensure that all people around the world benefit for this extraordinary era.
2 comments:
The pattern seems very improbable to maintain, though.
If a commputer with that much power could be built that cheaply, what scarcity power could a human being have that would enable that person to make a living and, you know, buy such a computer? Strength is pretty well irrelevant, and so would mental and mechanical skill at that point, so what exactly would a person do?
Without means for income, how would this system continue?
That is an interesting question which one must ponder. Certainly, human civilization has had to make such leaps before - from hunting and gathering to agriculture and then from agriculture to industry. In today's world, there is little demand for hunter/gatherers. I believe that the transistion that I have described is entirely analagous - even if it is on a different order of magnitude. And similiar to previous transistions, we can concieve of ways in which human beings could continue to play an important role.
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